By Gary Langer, ABCNews.com
Amid rising disenchantment with the war in Iraq, President Bush has lost significant ground on the issue on which he's staked his presidency: fighting terrorism.
For the first time in ABC News/Washington Post polls, more than half of Americans, 52 percent, say the Iraq war was not worth fighting. Seven in 10 call U.S. casualties there "unacceptable," a new high. And there's been a steady slide in belief that the war has enhanced long-term U.S. security; 51 percent now say so, down 11 points this year.
Bush, moreover, has weakened in his once-strongest area. Approval of his handling of the U.S. campaign against terrorism has fallen to 50 percent, its lowest yet — down eight points in the last month and 29 points below its immediate postwar peak. In a hazardous turn of fortune for Bush, Democrat John Kerry now runs evenly with him in trust to handle terrorism; Bush had led by 13 points on this issue a month ago, and by 21 points the month before.
While Kerry's pressing hard on an issue Bush once owned, the president has not entirely relinquished his advantage on terrorism. On a personal level, the public by a 14-point margin picks him over Kerry to keep the nation safer and more secure. And the Massachusetts senator may be vulnerable on specifics; only four in 10 say he has a "clear plan" on terrorism, while Bush does better.
Corrected Terror Report Released
But Kerry is scoring against Bush elsewhere as well, running ahead in trust to handle five of nine issues tested in this poll, from taxes to education to health care; Bush doesn't lead significantly in any of them. And personally, while Americans broadly see Bush as more consistent, they see Kerry as more honest and trustworthy, by a 13-point margin, and more in touch with their problems, by 20 points.
Evaluating Bush's overall job performance, 47 percent of Americans now approve while 51 percent disapprove, inching over half for the first time in ABC/Post polls. In head-to-head matchups among registered voters, Kerry has a slight four-point lead over Bush when independent candidate Ralph Nader is included, and a larger eight-point lead with Nader out of the contest.
With life-and-death issues such as Iraq and terrorism as a backdrop, and the economy a continued concern, interest in the presidential contest is unusually high. More than three-quarters of Americans are following it closely, a third "very closely." By contrast, at this time in 2000, fewer than half (49 percent) were closely following the contest between Bush and Al Gore, only 13 percent very closely.
Iraq Impact
While time ultimately will tell, at this point it's hard to see Iraq as anything but a net negative politically for the Bush administration. In addition to increasingly negative reaction to the level of casualties, and essentially split decisions on whether the war was worth fighting or improved U.S. security, other assessments have worsened as well.
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· Kennedy Says Focus on Iraq Puts U.S. at Risk
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· AOL Search: Al-Qaida
Seventy-six percent now say the war has damaged the United States' image in the rest of the world; that's 13 points more than last summer. Sixty-three percent say it's caused long-term harm to U.S. relations with countries that opposed the war, up 12 points. And just four in 10 say it's improved long-term stability in the Middle East, down eight points. (In a more positive assessment, 65 percent think the war has improved the lives of the Iraqi people.)
Iraq Handover
Given such views, the public seems eager to put Iraq back into Iraqis' hands. An overwhelming 82 percent approve of the transfer of power to an interim government on June 30 — but many see it as an insufficient exercise. More than half think the United States will continue to hold the real power in Iraq, even though three-quarters would prefer to see real power shift to the Iraqis.
Indeed, the public splits evenly on who should have final say on the presence of U.S. forces in Iraq — the United States or the new Iraqi government. And majorities say the Iraqis should have final say on a variety of other fronts — running Iraq's oil industry, managing its economy, administering its non-U.S. foreign aid and determining what's ultimately done with Saddam Hussein. (For the time being, though, Americans by 2-1 say the United States should keep physical custody of the former Iraqi president.)
There are just two matters, by contrast, in which majorities say the United States should retain final say in Iraq: the activities (as opposed to the presence) of U.S. forces, and the administration of American aid projects.
Others results show mixed perceptions of progress for the Bush administration: With a new interim government now in place and the formal handover imminent, half of Americans say the United States has made "significant progress" toward establishing a democratic government in Iraq. While hardly rousing, that's up by 12 points from last month. The country divides similarly, 51 percent to 48 percent, on U.S. progress toward restoring civil order.
Iraq and Al Qaeda
Most Americans continue to suspect that Iraq, under Saddam, did provide support to the al Qaeda terrorist network — a position under debate since the 9/11 commission last week reported that there was evidence of contacts, but not of an operational relationship, between the two.
It should be noted, though, that the majority's suspicion of an Iraq-al Qaeda link is just that — a suspicion, not an assertion or assumption of fact. In this poll, 62 percent think Iraq provided direct support to al Qaeda, nearly what it was (68 percent) in January 2003, before the war. But just 23 percent say there's "solid evidence" of this support; 38 percent say instead that it's their suspicion only.
As on other "50/50 nation" issues, the public divides about evenly on whether the Bush administration intentionally misled the American public about Iraq-al Qaeda links (48 percent say so) or told the public simply what it believed to be true (50 percent).
Terrorism
The murder Friday of Paul Johnson, an American working in Saudi Arabia, can't have helped public views of the terrorism situation; indeed, Bush's approval rating on terrorism was better in interviews Thursday night, before the slaying, than subsequently. At the same time, Bush's trouble on this central issue has been brewing; he had 70 percent approval on terrorism in mid-December, 64 percent in February and 58 percent in May, en route to his 50 percent now.
It's a problem for Bush because since Sept. 11, 2001, handling the war on terrorism has been his strongest rating by far — the wellspring of his support. In this poll, by contrast, it's no better than his middling ratings in several areas. And he does worse in a variety of others — including health care (57 percent disapprove), the deficit (56 percent disapprove, albeit better than the 65 percent disapproval in March), international affairs and Iraq.
History
You asked: Who has the more effective ad strategy: Bush or Kerry? Who should change?
Bush's position is an uncomfortable one in historical terms. In all but one case since 1948, incumbent presidents whose approval ratings were below 50 percent in June or July of an election year either lost (Bush's father, Jimmy Carter, Gerald Ford) or didn't run (Lyndon Johnson and Harry Truman in 1952). The exception was Truman in 1948.
Still, at 47 percent Bush's approval rating is higher than others' in the group — closest to Ford, who lost narrowly. Bush's father's approval rating in June 1992, by contrast, was 12 points lower.
Bush vs. Kerry
As noted above, Kerry leads Bush in trust to handle a range of specific issues; moreover, Kerry's standing on some of these have improved. He leads Bush by 13 points in trust to handle taxes; it was a six-point Bush lead in April. Kerry leads Bush by 12 points in trust to handle prescription drug benefits, up from three points in April. And Kerry has a 10-point lead on education; it was Bush +3 in April.
The most notable change, again, is in trust to handle terrorism — Bush +21 in April, Bush +13 in May, Kerry +1 (i.e., a dead heat) now, a shift that occurred almost entirely among women, particularly independents. But the change on education, among others, is important as well; neutralizing the Democrats on this issue was crucial to Bush's 2000 campaign.
Most Important Issue
Americans divide on which issue will be most important in their vote for president: Twenty-six percent say the economy, 19 percent Iraq, 18 percent terrorism, with the rest divided among other choices. There are sharp divisions within these issue groups. People who say Iraq is their most important issue pick Kerry over Bush in trust to handle it by nearly a 2-1 margin, 60 percent to 32 percent. Those who say it's terrorism pick Bush to handle that issue by a similar margin, 67 percent to 31 percent. Among economy voters, Kerry is preferred, by 21 points.
Economy
The economy is one area in which the headwinds against Bush may be easing. In March, Bush's disapproval for handling it was higher, 59 percent, and Kerry (riding his primary bounce) had a bigger lead in trust to handle it. While just 45 percent now say the economy's in good shape, it was worse, 39 percent, in March, and worse still, 30 percent, last fall.
At the same time, using Ronald Reagan's famous formulation, 45 percent of Americans say most people are worse off than when Bush took office, while just 17 percent say most are better off. This was a bit more negative last fall, but it's still not at all good. To the extent that Bush may try to claim the Reagan mantle, Kerry might well respond with the better-off question that same president enshrined in the political lexicon.
Plans
Fifty-five percent say Bush does have a clear plan for dealing with terrorism, but fewer, ranging from 42 percent to 48 percent, say he has clear plans in other important areas: handling Iraq, the economy and health care.
Majorities see Kerry as having clear plans for two issues on this list — health care and the economy. But just 42 percent say he has a clear plan on either terrorism or Iraq — 13 points worse than Bush on the former, six points on the latter.
Attributes
In addition to issues, assessments of candidates' personal attributes are an essential piece of any election puzzle. Here Americans are differentiating between Bush and Kerry in striking ways. Bush has a 21-point lead over Kerry as someone who "takes a position and sticks with it," and, as noted, a 14-point lead as someone who "will make the country safer and more secure."
Bush also leads by eight points as the stronger leader, and by 12 as the one best trusted in a crisis. The two are rated about evenly in values and standing up to special interest groups; while, as noted, Kerry leads by 13 points on honesty and trustworthiness, and by 20 points on empathy — someone who "understands the problems of people like you." As much as the issues, winning allegiance on these attributes is the ground on which the 2004 election will be fought.
Optimism
Part of winning that allegiance relies on the candidates' personal outlook, and the extent to which it jibes with the public's. Despite the country's problems, optimism prevails in several areas.
Thinking about the year ahead, 62 percent are optimistic about "the way things are going in this country" (albeit down seven points from January); 66 percent are optimistic about the country's ability to defend itself against terrorism (albeit down nine points); 64 percent are optimistic about the economy (level). Fewer, 52 percent, are optimistic about the situation in Iraq; it was 58 percent in January.
A challenge for Kerry is in finding a way to confront Bush on these issues, and portray the problems they pose, without sounding a note of dour pessimism that's out of touch with the broader public's point of view. Bush, for his part, has made a point lately of stressing his optimistic outlook, and contrasting it with Kerry's.
Vote Preference
These issues and attributes will play out in vote preferences all summer and fall; what matters more at this point is the substance of the debate, not its eventual outcome — which news polls this far from the event don't even try to project.
Among other factors, vote preferences are influenced by, and in turn influence, political party allegiance. Among registered voters in this poll, 38 percent describe themselves as Democrats, 30 percent as Republicans and 28 percent as independents (it's a 35 percent-29 percent-30 percent split among all Americans, not just those who say they're registered to vote).
Those divisions are almost precisely the same as they were in the last ABC/Post poll, in late May (among registered voters, 37 percent-29 percent-28 percent). In that poll, Bush and Kerry were even in the three-way race (46 percent-46 percent-4 percent, compared with 44 percent-48 percent-6 percent here); and it was 47 percent-49 percent Bush-Kerry in the two-way race, compared with 45 percent-53 percent here.
These slight shifts in preference have occurred, not in the overall partisan makeup of the sample, but among groups. Women, in particular, have moved toward Kerry, as have, perhaps most crucially, independents — the true swing voters in election politics.
Methodology
This ABC News/Washington Post poll was conducted by telephone June 17-20 among a random national sample of 1,201 adults. The results have a three-point error margin. Sampling, data collection and tabulation were done by TNS of Horsham, Pa.
Amid rising disenchantment with the war in Iraq, President Bush has lost significant ground on the issue on which he's staked his presidency: fighting terrorism.
For the first time in ABC News/Washington Post polls, more than half of Americans, 52 percent, say the Iraq war was not worth fighting. Seven in 10 call U.S. casualties there "unacceptable," a new high. And there's been a steady slide in belief that the war has enhanced long-term U.S. security; 51 percent now say so, down 11 points this year.
Bush, moreover, has weakened in his once-strongest area. Approval of his handling of the U.S. campaign against terrorism has fallen to 50 percent, its lowest yet — down eight points in the last month and 29 points below its immediate postwar peak. In a hazardous turn of fortune for Bush, Democrat John Kerry now runs evenly with him in trust to handle terrorism; Bush had led by 13 points on this issue a month ago, and by 21 points the month before.
While Kerry's pressing hard on an issue Bush once owned, the president has not entirely relinquished his advantage on terrorism. On a personal level, the public by a 14-point margin picks him over Kerry to keep the nation safer and more secure. And the Massachusetts senator may be vulnerable on specifics; only four in 10 say he has a "clear plan" on terrorism, while Bush does better.
Corrected Terror Report Released
But Kerry is scoring against Bush elsewhere as well, running ahead in trust to handle five of nine issues tested in this poll, from taxes to education to health care; Bush doesn't lead significantly in any of them. And personally, while Americans broadly see Bush as more consistent, they see Kerry as more honest and trustworthy, by a 13-point margin, and more in touch with their problems, by 20 points.
Evaluating Bush's overall job performance, 47 percent of Americans now approve while 51 percent disapprove, inching over half for the first time in ABC/Post polls. In head-to-head matchups among registered voters, Kerry has a slight four-point lead over Bush when independent candidate Ralph Nader is included, and a larger eight-point lead with Nader out of the contest.
With life-and-death issues such as Iraq and terrorism as a backdrop, and the economy a continued concern, interest in the presidential contest is unusually high. More than three-quarters of Americans are following it closely, a third "very closely." By contrast, at this time in 2000, fewer than half (49 percent) were closely following the contest between Bush and Al Gore, only 13 percent very closely.
Iraq Impact
While time ultimately will tell, at this point it's hard to see Iraq as anything but a net negative politically for the Bush administration. In addition to increasingly negative reaction to the level of casualties, and essentially split decisions on whether the war was worth fighting or improved U.S. security, other assessments have worsened as well.
· Kennedy Says Focus on Iraq Puts U.S. at Risk
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
· AOL Search: Al-Qaida
Seventy-six percent now say the war has damaged the United States' image in the rest of the world; that's 13 points more than last summer. Sixty-three percent say it's caused long-term harm to U.S. relations with countries that opposed the war, up 12 points. And just four in 10 say it's improved long-term stability in the Middle East, down eight points. (In a more positive assessment, 65 percent think the war has improved the lives of the Iraqi people.)
Iraq Handover
Given such views, the public seems eager to put Iraq back into Iraqis' hands. An overwhelming 82 percent approve of the transfer of power to an interim government on June 30 — but many see it as an insufficient exercise. More than half think the United States will continue to hold the real power in Iraq, even though three-quarters would prefer to see real power shift to the Iraqis.
Indeed, the public splits evenly on who should have final say on the presence of U.S. forces in Iraq — the United States or the new Iraqi government. And majorities say the Iraqis should have final say on a variety of other fronts — running Iraq's oil industry, managing its economy, administering its non-U.S. foreign aid and determining what's ultimately done with Saddam Hussein. (For the time being, though, Americans by 2-1 say the United States should keep physical custody of the former Iraqi president.)
There are just two matters, by contrast, in which majorities say the United States should retain final say in Iraq: the activities (as opposed to the presence) of U.S. forces, and the administration of American aid projects.
Others results show mixed perceptions of progress for the Bush administration: With a new interim government now in place and the formal handover imminent, half of Americans say the United States has made "significant progress" toward establishing a democratic government in Iraq. While hardly rousing, that's up by 12 points from last month. The country divides similarly, 51 percent to 48 percent, on U.S. progress toward restoring civil order.
Iraq and Al Qaeda
Most Americans continue to suspect that Iraq, under Saddam, did provide support to the al Qaeda terrorist network — a position under debate since the 9/11 commission last week reported that there was evidence of contacts, but not of an operational relationship, between the two.
It should be noted, though, that the majority's suspicion of an Iraq-al Qaeda link is just that — a suspicion, not an assertion or assumption of fact. In this poll, 62 percent think Iraq provided direct support to al Qaeda, nearly what it was (68 percent) in January 2003, before the war. But just 23 percent say there's "solid evidence" of this support; 38 percent say instead that it's their suspicion only.
As on other "50/50 nation" issues, the public divides about evenly on whether the Bush administration intentionally misled the American public about Iraq-al Qaeda links (48 percent say so) or told the public simply what it believed to be true (50 percent).
Terrorism
The murder Friday of Paul Johnson, an American working in Saudi Arabia, can't have helped public views of the terrorism situation; indeed, Bush's approval rating on terrorism was better in interviews Thursday night, before the slaying, than subsequently. At the same time, Bush's trouble on this central issue has been brewing; he had 70 percent approval on terrorism in mid-December, 64 percent in February and 58 percent in May, en route to his 50 percent now.
It's a problem for Bush because since Sept. 11, 2001, handling the war on terrorism has been his strongest rating by far — the wellspring of his support. In this poll, by contrast, it's no better than his middling ratings in several areas. And he does worse in a variety of others — including health care (57 percent disapprove), the deficit (56 percent disapprove, albeit better than the 65 percent disapproval in March), international affairs and Iraq.
History
You asked: Who has the more effective ad strategy: Bush or Kerry? Who should change?
Bush's position is an uncomfortable one in historical terms. In all but one case since 1948, incumbent presidents whose approval ratings were below 50 percent in June or July of an election year either lost (Bush's father, Jimmy Carter, Gerald Ford) or didn't run (Lyndon Johnson and Harry Truman in 1952). The exception was Truman in 1948.
Still, at 47 percent Bush's approval rating is higher than others' in the group — closest to Ford, who lost narrowly. Bush's father's approval rating in June 1992, by contrast, was 12 points lower.
Bush vs. Kerry
As noted above, Kerry leads Bush in trust to handle a range of specific issues; moreover, Kerry's standing on some of these have improved. He leads Bush by 13 points in trust to handle taxes; it was a six-point Bush lead in April. Kerry leads Bush by 12 points in trust to handle prescription drug benefits, up from three points in April. And Kerry has a 10-point lead on education; it was Bush +3 in April.
The most notable change, again, is in trust to handle terrorism — Bush +21 in April, Bush +13 in May, Kerry +1 (i.e., a dead heat) now, a shift that occurred almost entirely among women, particularly independents. But the change on education, among others, is important as well; neutralizing the Democrats on this issue was crucial to Bush's 2000 campaign.
Most Important Issue
Americans divide on which issue will be most important in their vote for president: Twenty-six percent say the economy, 19 percent Iraq, 18 percent terrorism, with the rest divided among other choices. There are sharp divisions within these issue groups. People who say Iraq is their most important issue pick Kerry over Bush in trust to handle it by nearly a 2-1 margin, 60 percent to 32 percent. Those who say it's terrorism pick Bush to handle that issue by a similar margin, 67 percent to 31 percent. Among economy voters, Kerry is preferred, by 21 points.
Economy
The economy is one area in which the headwinds against Bush may be easing. In March, Bush's disapproval for handling it was higher, 59 percent, and Kerry (riding his primary bounce) had a bigger lead in trust to handle it. While just 45 percent now say the economy's in good shape, it was worse, 39 percent, in March, and worse still, 30 percent, last fall.
At the same time, using Ronald Reagan's famous formulation, 45 percent of Americans say most people are worse off than when Bush took office, while just 17 percent say most are better off. This was a bit more negative last fall, but it's still not at all good. To the extent that Bush may try to claim the Reagan mantle, Kerry might well respond with the better-off question that same president enshrined in the political lexicon.
Plans
Fifty-five percent say Bush does have a clear plan for dealing with terrorism, but fewer, ranging from 42 percent to 48 percent, say he has clear plans in other important areas: handling Iraq, the economy and health care.
Majorities see Kerry as having clear plans for two issues on this list — health care and the economy. But just 42 percent say he has a clear plan on either terrorism or Iraq — 13 points worse than Bush on the former, six points on the latter.
Attributes
In addition to issues, assessments of candidates' personal attributes are an essential piece of any election puzzle. Here Americans are differentiating between Bush and Kerry in striking ways. Bush has a 21-point lead over Kerry as someone who "takes a position and sticks with it," and, as noted, a 14-point lead as someone who "will make the country safer and more secure."
Bush also leads by eight points as the stronger leader, and by 12 as the one best trusted in a crisis. The two are rated about evenly in values and standing up to special interest groups; while, as noted, Kerry leads by 13 points on honesty and trustworthiness, and by 20 points on empathy — someone who "understands the problems of people like you." As much as the issues, winning allegiance on these attributes is the ground on which the 2004 election will be fought.
Optimism
Part of winning that allegiance relies on the candidates' personal outlook, and the extent to which it jibes with the public's. Despite the country's problems, optimism prevails in several areas.
Thinking about the year ahead, 62 percent are optimistic about "the way things are going in this country" (albeit down seven points from January); 66 percent are optimistic about the country's ability to defend itself against terrorism (albeit down nine points); 64 percent are optimistic about the economy (level). Fewer, 52 percent, are optimistic about the situation in Iraq; it was 58 percent in January.
A challenge for Kerry is in finding a way to confront Bush on these issues, and portray the problems they pose, without sounding a note of dour pessimism that's out of touch with the broader public's point of view. Bush, for his part, has made a point lately of stressing his optimistic outlook, and contrasting it with Kerry's.
Vote Preference
These issues and attributes will play out in vote preferences all summer and fall; what matters more at this point is the substance of the debate, not its eventual outcome — which news polls this far from the event don't even try to project.
Among other factors, vote preferences are influenced by, and in turn influence, political party allegiance. Among registered voters in this poll, 38 percent describe themselves as Democrats, 30 percent as Republicans and 28 percent as independents (it's a 35 percent-29 percent-30 percent split among all Americans, not just those who say they're registered to vote).
Those divisions are almost precisely the same as they were in the last ABC/Post poll, in late May (among registered voters, 37 percent-29 percent-28 percent). In that poll, Bush and Kerry were even in the three-way race (46 percent-46 percent-4 percent, compared with 44 percent-48 percent-6 percent here); and it was 47 percent-49 percent Bush-Kerry in the two-way race, compared with 45 percent-53 percent here.
These slight shifts in preference have occurred, not in the overall partisan makeup of the sample, but among groups. Women, in particular, have moved toward Kerry, as have, perhaps most crucially, independents — the true swing voters in election politics.
Methodology
This ABC News/Washington Post poll was conducted by telephone June 17-20 among a random national sample of 1,201 adults. The results have a three-point error margin. Sampling, data collection and tabulation were done by TNS of Horsham, Pa.
